Indian economy’s journey of Expressway to PMGSY road [1 ]
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| Courtesy - Faking news & Nirav Cartoon |
Indian
economy grew 8-9% in UPA 1 tenure and today it’s growing on the rate of 5%
,that’s why I compare it with Expressway & Rural roads .
Speed limit on Express way is 100kmph and ON PMGSY roads it’s restricted to 20kmph.
Speed limit on Express way is 100kmph and ON PMGSY roads it’s restricted to 20kmph.
but what is the reason of this falling of economy ? Interesting the
answer lied in the grow of Indian Economy during 2005-09 . it’s
unsustainable growth . economy is not only related to the market,RBI and Banks
.
Economics is all about politics, judiciary ,trust of citizen in Government ,social justice, electoral politics, party politics, Business ethics etc etc
Economic growth and political stability deeply interconnected , on one hand uncertainty in political environment may reduce investment and economic growth on other hand poor economic performance may lead Government collapse and political unrest
Economic growth is the slow process, if you take some step today than its effect will happen after5-10 years later.
1991 reforms are responsible for the high grow rate of Millennium decades and NDA government infra policy is the reason behind UPA 1 growth story,
PPP is the No1 reason behind the India’s growth story in last decade, these relate to enacting new legislation — for example, the Electricity Act, 2003; the amended National Highways Authority of India Act, 1995; the Special Economic Zone Act, 2005; and the Land Acquisition Bill. As also the creation of new institutions like regulatory authorities in telecom, power and airports, implementing authorities like the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).
Second one is Information Technology and outsourcing , but both this reach to it’s saturation
And affected of these steps appeared in 2005-09 GDP growth table.
Political stability and growth :-
Political stability doesn’t mean only full majority government instead of co-alienation government
E.sridharan sub divided Political stability in 4 parts :-
1.Instability in Nagaland,Manipur and Kashmir
2. Maoist insurgency
3.Communal violence and demand of new states
4.Co-alination politics
Balance between all these factor is the basic need of economic growth .
Instability in North east states :-
A comparative examination of thirteen accords signed in the region between 1949 and 2005 finds that only one--the Mizo Accord of 1986--was successful in creating an enduring peace.
Take a Example :- Immediately after the liberalization of 1991 starting in about 2 or 3 years time (1993-1994) to the end of the decade until 1999-2000 we see that mainland states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan & Kerala show tremendous growth running at 7 or more than 8 percent. While at this time that the rest of the nation are catching up fast
Assam is staggering behind at 1.95% for nearly a decade which can rightly be called as the „lost decade in the race‟ for generally all the North Eastern states that was lagging behind due aftermaths or violence and political stability as has been discussed earlier
Contrastingly, we see that in the following half a decade Assam GSDP growth rate has tremendously jumped to 6.99% which is way higher than rapidly growing states like Karnataka, Rajasthan & even Kerala. This sudden jump in the average growth rate from 1.95% to 6.99% over the decade prompts us to questions not just what economic conditions but also what socio-political conditions were favorable in the region during the turn of the decade.
(1)India’s national growth rate of GDP was 8.39% in 2012-14 at he same time expect aasam all other NE state grow at rate was higher than national average . Manipur-9% Nagaland-11.33% , Sikkim -19.28% , Aruncachl – 17.04%
Political stability is the main reason behind this big Figures.
Arunachal Pradesh only contribute 87% in total Indian hydro power & hydro power contribute 18.89% in Total power production in india so, indirectly Aruncahl Pradesh contribute nearly 15% in Total power production in India and we all know Power is the Main and basic need of Growth of Any economy !
But these became possible only when there Peace and stability established in north east .
Naxal movement :-
PM said “Naxalisam is the biggest threat to Indian internal security” in 2010 but due to vote bank politics PM can not take step to fight with it .
The red corridor extends from Pashupatinath(Nepal) to Tirupati (Aaandra Pradesh)
Mines and coal is the basic requirement of growth and these Mines & coal reserved area come under the influence of Naxals .
(2)Naxal influenced increase constantly with 2010 and Indian economy fall constantly since 2010 it’s not co-incident but it’s proved that political stability is necessary for Growth of economy .
*Lower tax revenues – The Naxals run a parallel government in their areas preventing the governing agencies to collect taxes etc.
*Lower domestic investment and higher expenditure on defense at the cost of lower expenditure on education and health
*Lower exports, reduced bilateral trade flows and reduced foreign direct investment inflows. – Due to the Naxal violence and their extortion business foreign and domestic investment remains low.
These problems are coupled with the lack of good transportation facilities which are also a victim of Naxal violence.
Micro-economic effects include lower tourist inflows, lower regional tourism market share, reduced usage of public transport, reduced long term investments in agriculture and other potential sectors, reduced enrollment in schools, lower job availability and lack of substantial opportunities
Naxals are also a hurdle for government’s growth process in undeveloped area There is school building but no teacher , there is health PHC but no doctor ready to come all these due to the threat of naxal .
Naxals spread in 160 district of India and 55 disctict declared worst affected areas in 9 states nd they were to be provided with funds to the tune of Rs. 2475 crores to tackle the problem of Naxalism.
This all affect Economy of India.
Communal violence and Regional aspirants :-
Communal harmony is the macro level basic requirement of Small scale industries , India witnessed its worst communal riots in 1948 after the partition. Noakhali in Bengal and several villages of Bihar were the worst hit. The of person killed were higher than the Hiroshima nad nagasakhi .
After Independe we faced 1969 Ahmedabad riots, 1984 sikh riots, 1989 Bhagalpur riots, 2002 Guajrat riots etc etc
NAC - During 2005-09, 648 people were killed and 11,278 injured in 4,030 incidents of communal violence.
And the other is Demand of new state :-
Demand for a separate state continues to be the focus of several political organizations which see sovereignty as the solution to ethnic, regional or cultural differences as witnessed by the demands for creation of at least 10 new states over the years.
These include a separate Mithilanchal in Bihar, Saurashtra in Gujarat and Coorg in Karnataka, among others.
A senior home ministry official said the demands were mostly received from voluble organizations like Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Gorkha Janmukti Morcha and some other outfits and individuals.
BBC headline over telangana strike : “A strike in favour of a new state has hit businesses and public transport in the Telangana region”
According to Assocham, the tangible loss of goods and services in the past 15 days would be in excess of Rs 10,000 crore.
The daily production of Singareni Collieries Ltd, the state-owned coal miner was 1.5 lakh tonnes which has dropped to less than 10,000 tonnes per day on average.
And the answer of this problem is in the Hand of Politics…If politicians take fast decision and quickly implement it than there will be a batter growth figures.
Co-alienation politics :-
Decision over GST , Sub sidy , social sector schemes , Fuel sub sidy , Tax benefit all these depend upon Government and Government depend upon it’s allies and these allies part each have own regional perspective so,it’s tough and recent days it’s impossible for Government to take decisions .
As we saw in case of Dinesh trivedi – He presented rail budget in 2012 and A good budget , Good for both – the railways and the citizen but it’s bad for vote Bank politics of TMC and Mamata benrgee sacked him and then present a new rail budget
Left party leave government on Nuclear deal , TMC leave on the name of fuel sub sidy and DMK leave recently . Government is now on ventilator support of SP and BSP .
Manmohan singh said : Managing Co-alienation is not easy
Economics is all about politics, judiciary ,trust of citizen in Government ,social justice, electoral politics, party politics, Business ethics etc etc
Economic growth and political stability deeply interconnected , on one hand uncertainty in political environment may reduce investment and economic growth on other hand poor economic performance may lead Government collapse and political unrest
Economic growth is the slow process, if you take some step today than its effect will happen after5-10 years later.
1991 reforms are responsible for the high grow rate of Millennium decades and NDA government infra policy is the reason behind UPA 1 growth story,
PPP is the No1 reason behind the India’s growth story in last decade, these relate to enacting new legislation — for example, the Electricity Act, 2003; the amended National Highways Authority of India Act, 1995; the Special Economic Zone Act, 2005; and the Land Acquisition Bill. As also the creation of new institutions like regulatory authorities in telecom, power and airports, implementing authorities like the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).
Second one is Information Technology and outsourcing , but both this reach to it’s saturation
And affected of these steps appeared in 2005-09 GDP growth table.
Political stability and growth :-
Political stability doesn’t mean only full majority government instead of co-alienation government
E.sridharan sub divided Political stability in 4 parts :-
1.Instability in Nagaland,Manipur and Kashmir
2. Maoist insurgency
3.Communal violence and demand of new states
4.Co-alination politics
Balance between all these factor is the basic need of economic growth .
Instability in North east states :-
A comparative examination of thirteen accords signed in the region between 1949 and 2005 finds that only one--the Mizo Accord of 1986--was successful in creating an enduring peace.
Take a Example :- Immediately after the liberalization of 1991 starting in about 2 or 3 years time (1993-1994) to the end of the decade until 1999-2000 we see that mainland states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan & Kerala show tremendous growth running at 7 or more than 8 percent. While at this time that the rest of the nation are catching up fast
Assam is staggering behind at 1.95% for nearly a decade which can rightly be called as the „lost decade in the race‟ for generally all the North Eastern states that was lagging behind due aftermaths or violence and political stability as has been discussed earlier
Contrastingly, we see that in the following half a decade Assam GSDP growth rate has tremendously jumped to 6.99% which is way higher than rapidly growing states like Karnataka, Rajasthan & even Kerala. This sudden jump in the average growth rate from 1.95% to 6.99% over the decade prompts us to questions not just what economic conditions but also what socio-political conditions were favorable in the region during the turn of the decade.
(1)India’s national growth rate of GDP was 8.39% in 2012-14 at he same time expect aasam all other NE state grow at rate was higher than national average . Manipur-9% Nagaland-11.33% , Sikkim -19.28% , Aruncachl – 17.04%
Political stability is the main reason behind this big Figures.
Arunachal Pradesh only contribute 87% in total Indian hydro power & hydro power contribute 18.89% in Total power production in india so, indirectly Aruncahl Pradesh contribute nearly 15% in Total power production in India and we all know Power is the Main and basic need of Growth of Any economy !
But these became possible only when there Peace and stability established in north east .
Naxal movement :-
PM said “Naxalisam is the biggest threat to Indian internal security” in 2010 but due to vote bank politics PM can not take step to fight with it .
The red corridor extends from Pashupatinath(Nepal) to Tirupati (Aaandra Pradesh)
Mines and coal is the basic requirement of growth and these Mines & coal reserved area come under the influence of Naxals .
(2)Naxal influenced increase constantly with 2010 and Indian economy fall constantly since 2010 it’s not co-incident but it’s proved that political stability is necessary for Growth of economy .
*Lower tax revenues – The Naxals run a parallel government in their areas preventing the governing agencies to collect taxes etc.
*Lower domestic investment and higher expenditure on defense at the cost of lower expenditure on education and health
*Lower exports, reduced bilateral trade flows and reduced foreign direct investment inflows. – Due to the Naxal violence and their extortion business foreign and domestic investment remains low.
These problems are coupled with the lack of good transportation facilities which are also a victim of Naxal violence.
Micro-economic effects include lower tourist inflows, lower regional tourism market share, reduced usage of public transport, reduced long term investments in agriculture and other potential sectors, reduced enrollment in schools, lower job availability and lack of substantial opportunities
Naxals are also a hurdle for government’s growth process in undeveloped area There is school building but no teacher , there is health PHC but no doctor ready to come all these due to the threat of naxal .
Naxals spread in 160 district of India and 55 disctict declared worst affected areas in 9 states nd they were to be provided with funds to the tune of Rs. 2475 crores to tackle the problem of Naxalism.
This all affect Economy of India.
Communal violence and Regional aspirants :-
Communal harmony is the macro level basic requirement of Small scale industries , India witnessed its worst communal riots in 1948 after the partition. Noakhali in Bengal and several villages of Bihar were the worst hit. The of person killed were higher than the Hiroshima nad nagasakhi .
After Independe we faced 1969 Ahmedabad riots, 1984 sikh riots, 1989 Bhagalpur riots, 2002 Guajrat riots etc etc
NAC - During 2005-09, 648 people were killed and 11,278 injured in 4,030 incidents of communal violence.
And the other is Demand of new state :-
Demand for a separate state continues to be the focus of several political organizations which see sovereignty as the solution to ethnic, regional or cultural differences as witnessed by the demands for creation of at least 10 new states over the years.
These include a separate Mithilanchal in Bihar, Saurashtra in Gujarat and Coorg in Karnataka, among others.
A senior home ministry official said the demands were mostly received from voluble organizations like Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Gorkha Janmukti Morcha and some other outfits and individuals.
BBC headline over telangana strike : “A strike in favour of a new state has hit businesses and public transport in the Telangana region”
According to Assocham, the tangible loss of goods and services in the past 15 days would be in excess of Rs 10,000 crore.
The daily production of Singareni Collieries Ltd, the state-owned coal miner was 1.5 lakh tonnes which has dropped to less than 10,000 tonnes per day on average.
And the answer of this problem is in the Hand of Politics…If politicians take fast decision and quickly implement it than there will be a batter growth figures.
Co-alienation politics :-
Decision over GST , Sub sidy , social sector schemes , Fuel sub sidy , Tax benefit all these depend upon Government and Government depend upon it’s allies and these allies part each have own regional perspective so,it’s tough and recent days it’s impossible for Government to take decisions .
As we saw in case of Dinesh trivedi – He presented rail budget in 2012 and A good budget , Good for both – the railways and the citizen but it’s bad for vote Bank politics of TMC and Mamata benrgee sacked him and then present a new rail budget
Left party leave government on Nuclear deal , TMC leave on the name of fuel sub sidy and DMK leave recently . Government is now on ventilator support of SP and BSP .
Manmohan singh said : Managing Co-alienation is not easy
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