7 Questions to the V K Paul, head of India’s Covid-19 Task Force on the vaccination plan of 216 Cr. doses

“We have contacted manufacturers and sought information on the availability of vaccine for August-December… In this period, 216 crore doses would become available in India. The vaccine will be made available for all as we move forward…,” 

- Dr. V K Paul, head of India’s Covid-19 Task Force 

Here is the plan of the government to vaccinate Indians.

PIB Government of India

Now, Here are some questions to the VK Paul who is also a member of the NITI Aayog.

1. The figure of the 216 crore doses by December seems attractive for the headlines, but the question is, all 8 vaccines cleared the Safety and other trials? The Indian Express has Answer and here it is. 

Indian Express

2. Can SII and Bharat Biotech have the capacity to make the number of doses projected by the VK Paul?

As per the VK paul, the government will procure 55 crore doses of the Covaxin by December. Let consider a procurement period of 6 months, 180 days. This means, Bharat Biotech has to produce 30 lakh doses daily, which means 3 crores/month.

But, the the affidavit submitted by the union government on the date 9/5/2021 to the supreme court says Covaxin capacity will rise from 3 lakh doses/day ( 10 Million/month)  to 33 lakhs/day in the next 8-10 months, which means after December 2021.

 

3. Do the Government of India ( GOI) have signed any contract to procure/manufacture these vaccines? Does GOI make any upfront payment? If it is such, VK paul should put it in public.

This is the RTI reply dated 5/5/2021 when the Vaccination drive of the Covishiled and Covaxin was in full swing,  Even though Government has no information to show the signed agreement with SII or Bharat biotech. ( * ) 

 4. Indian Express Made cleared that five out of eight vaccines are yet to approved in India. Now the Question is How Mr. Paul is sure that all these five vaccines will clear the all necessary tests before the month of August?

NY Times

As per the NY times, Covid tracker the success ratio of worldwide vaccine is the 2:1 means 67% and that also when clinical trials are done with some permissible shortcuts. 

VK paul projected to procure 51 crore doses of vaccines ( 4 vaccines) which are in the trial phase yet. So if we applied the 2:1 ratio of success, the best possible we may get 30 Cr. doses of the 51 crores projected by VK Paul.

5. Does the finance ministry endorse the claims of the 216 crore doses proposed by Covid task force?

Moneycontrol

This question is important to answer as the finance ministry’s own claim is to vaccinate 50 crore citizens by March 2022. Covid Taskforce, Scientific advisor, NITI aayog, etc. are the advisory bodies and not the executive bodies which can take decisions. In Our setup, the Finance ministry (After the Prime minister) is the highest in the hierarchy of decision-making. 

So the government needs to clear that what is the goal of the government - Vaccinate 50 crore citizens by march 2022? or 108 Crore by December 2021?

 

6. Do India need 216 crores doses of vaccines?

VK Paul talked about the supply side only, India will have 216 doses of vaccines by December 2021. What about the demand side? 

This the affidavit submitted by the union government in the supreme court. It clearly mentions that India needs 122 crore doses for the universal immunization of the 18+. This is nearly 50% of the doses mentioned by VK Paul.

7. Do the VK paul can give a “Guarantee” of availability of the 216 crore doses by December 2021?

 

This question is very important as millions of lives at the stake. India cannot afford to talk on air about vaccines. 

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* CPIO said that information is not held by him/her which means another CPIO may have that information. But if that is the case CPIO supposed to transfer the RTI to another CPIO as per section 6(3) of RTI but CPIO does not transfer it. So, It is safe to assume that government declines the information.